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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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